February 2010
Joba vs. Hughes: Who’s going to take the fifth?
The past two years, the never-ending debate in regards to Joba (Joba Joba) Chamberlain has been: Starter or reliever? Now, after his dominance in the bullpen as the setup man for Mariano Rivera last year, people are asking the same question of Phil Hughes. Both Hughes and Joba head into Spring Training with their sites on being the Yankees’ fifth starter — Sergio Mitre, Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves are in the mix as well — with the loser of what ESPN’s Jayson Stark called the “Phil-vs.-Joba Steel-Cage Match” heading back to the ‘pen, likely in the eighth-inning role.
As I said in my first blog post of 2010, I thought, since Joba is no longer going to deal with any innings-limits, that the final rotation spot would be his to lose going into Spring Training. However, SI.com’s Jon Heyman, a man slightly more in the know than I am, said in his column posted today about the Yankees that Hughes looks to be the early favorite:
“The guess here is that Hughes has a slight edge for the starting job going in, partly because Chamberlain was so much better in the bullpen than as a starter and partly because there are no Hughes Rules.”
I’m kind of shocked that there are no “Hughes Rules” in place if he wins the starting spot. Hughes has never started more than 13 games at the Major League level, and his career-high for innings-pitched in the Majors is the 86 he threw last year, ly out of the ‘pen. He pitched 146 innings during the ’06 season, which was his career-high in the Minor Leagues. Joba ended up making 31 starts last year, and reached 157 1/3 innings, with the club limiting him to about three innings per start during a five-game stretch in September. I tried asking Heyman on Twitter if the Yankees would be willing to let Hughes make 30-plus starts and throw around 200 innings if he were to win the job, but he has yet to reply. He can’t ignore me forever. Oh wait, yes he can.
And his point on Joba being much better in the bullpen as a starter, well, isn’t that the case for Hughes as well? Outside of the no-hitter that wasn’t/hamstring injury game against Texas during the ’07 season, Hughes hasn’t exactly looked like a dominant starter. He went 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA in eight starts during the ’08 season, and last year was 3-2 as a starter, with two very good starts (six scoreless innings in his first start against Detroit; eight scoreless innings against Texas), four that were mediocre at best, and one shellacking at the hands of Baltimore (eight runs in 1 2/3). Then he went to the ‘pen and, like Joba in ’07, was dominant.
Joba’s first full season as a starter was not a success (9-6, 4.75 ERA in 31 starts), but he didn’t embarrass himself (well, outside of his fist-pump during his outing against the Red Sox on May 5. Yes, he struck out 12 batters, but he also gave up four runs in the first inning, lasted only 5 2/3 and, when he did the pump, the Yankees were trailing, 4-3. The Yankees ended up losing that game, 7-3. I had/have no problem with the Joba fist-pump … if it’s following a big out when the team is winning).
There’s also the possibility that Mitre, Gaudin or Aceves could win the final spot, and both Hughes and Joba could go to the ‘pen. I’ve heard a few people suggest this, but I see zero shot of it happening. An unnamed scout in Stark’s column thinks they should go this route because Hughes and Joba “are both better in the bullpen.” He also adds: “Neither one of them is overpowering as a starter. But they’re both overpowering out of the bullpen.” However: A) They’re competing to be the No. 5 starter, not a No. 1 or 2. They’re not expected to be dominant yet. And B) They’re both still very young. Zack Greinke went 5-17 wth a 5.80 ERA in his first full season as a starter, and last year was absolutely dominant (16-8, 2.16 ERA) on his way to winning the AL Cy Young. I’m not saying either Hughes or Chamberlain will ever put together a season like Greinke did in ’09, but we’ll never find out if they can be elite starters if they never get a chance to develop in the rotation.
I don’t like the “they’re more overpowering in the bullpen than they would be as starters” argument because I think that’s the case for basically every pitcher. The reason pitchers are in the bullpen is because they couldn’t make it as a starter. It’s one thing to take a potentially good starter and convert him into a dominant setup man or closer. But if both are in the ‘pen then one is basically going to be a middle reliever. You’re going to pass up finding out if one of these two can become a successful starter for one of them to pitch the sixth or seventh inning? And which one is going to be the setup man? It opens a whole new debate.
I do agree with one point the scout in Stark’s column made, that Joba “has always been a bull in a china shop. I don’t think he has a real good feel for pitching.” My main critique with Joba during his starts has been his pitch selection. He tends to fall in love with his slider, even if it isn’t sharp, and will often throw it at the worst time, like in a 3-2 count, hoping to surprise the hitter and get a strikeout. This has contributed to his struggles with walks during his time as a starter. Hughes, on the other hand, will occasionally just start throwing nothing but fastballs and completely ignore his curveball. Hughes has the better control of the two, but Joba gets more swings and misses (at least it seems like he does. I’m sure there’s somewhere to check that stat). The key for both is to develop a third pitch. Joba throws the occasional curveball, but it doesn’t do much. Hughes stopped throwing his changeup once he became a reliever, but that will have to return, and improve, if he’s back in the rotation.
So, who’s going to win? My early guess, if Heyman is right and there’s no “Hughes Rules,” is that Joba is headed back to setting up Mo in the ‘pen. We’ll find out over the next six weeks.
It’s official: Chien-Ming Gone
Today, Chien-Ming Wang officially agreed to a deal with the Nationals.
Much like Hideki Matsui, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that Wang wouldn’t be returning to the Yankees this season. Wang was signed by the Yankees as an amateur free agent in 2000 and, for the vast majority of his time in pinstripes, he was a success. He won 19 games in both 2006 and ’07, and looked to be on his way for another 15-plus win season in ’08 before he broke his foot running the bases against the Houston Astros, which resulted in one of my favorite Hank Steinbrenner moments, where the son of the Boss claimed “It’s time the National League joins the 21st century.”
Wang missed the rest of the ’08 season, and I thought him going down was the final blow to the Yankees’ playoff hopes that year. When he returned in ’09 I assumed Wang would put up similar numbers to what he did the past three years, but it was evident right from the start of the season that he was never completely healthy. The Yankees put him on the DL early in the season after a few horrible starts, then tried to work him back by putting him in the bullpen before finally shutting him down for the season with a shoulder injury, which basically put an end to his time as a member of the Yankees’ organization.
Wang was never a big personality, and, being a sinker pitcher, even with his success he wasn’t going to wow anyone who watched him pitch. Sinker pitchers don’t rely on strikeouts — the good ones rely on the movement of their pitch to get ground-ball outs. When Wang was on and his sinker was diving down in the zone it seemed like he’d go an entire start without the opposition putting a ball in the air. When he was off, like in the 2007 ALDS against the Indians, his sinker was flat and he would get rocked. In ’08 Wang had started to feature his slider a bit more, which got him a few more strikeouts and allowed him to limit the damage in starts when his sinker wasn’t staying down in the zone where it belonged. His last great start in pinstripes was against the Red Sox at Fenway in ’08, when he limited Boston to only two hits in a complete-game win.
So, how will he be remembered in pinstripes? I was always a big fan of, as Derek Jeter called him, Mr. Wang. One of the reasons was, well, it’s easy to be a fan of a pitcher who wins 19 games in back-to-back seasons. I know some fans might focus on his disappointing performance in the ’07 ALDS and his disatrous return in ’09, but, at 55-26, I don’t think anyone should short-change his tenure in the Bronx. Will he ever return to being the pitcher he was from 06-08? I’m not sure. However, I’m glad he’s found a new home with the Nationals.
Now, as payback for my loving tribute, he better come back in May, win 10-plus games, and make my ridiculous Nats prediction come true.
First dopey prediction of 2010. Yes, it involves the Nats
As I said in my first post of 2010, outside of my AL East/World Series predictions (which, as a Yankees fan, were slightly biased, but I legitimately expected the Yanks to win the World Series in 2009. I mean, they did sign CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira during the offseason. Would I have picked the Yanks to win it all in either ’07 or ’08? I’m not sure. I wasn’t crazy about their pitching either of those two seasons), my ’09 picks for the rest of the Major League were pretty atrocious. I mean, I picked the Cubs to face the Yankees in the World Series, and they were probably the most disappointing team in the Majors last season.
My sleeper pick was the Kansas City Royals, as I somehow ignored the fact that they haven’t made the playoffs since they won the World Series in 1985. When I was two years old. Not only did the Royals not make the playoffs last year, they managed to finish dead last in the AL Central — behind the Indians no less (they did finish with identical records). Even though KC had the AL Cy Young Award winner in Zack Greinke — and managed to get a sort of breakout (can you sort of breakout?) year from Billy Butler — they finished behind the Indians in the standings, during a season where the Indians traded their best pitcher (Cliff Lee) and best offensive player (Victor Martinez). And it’s not like the Indians had much outside of those two players anyway(Grady Sizemore was injured for a large part of the season). I know the Royals’ bullpen (it did include Yankees legend Kyle Farnsworth) and offense were so horrible that they managed to win only 16 of Greinke’s 33 starts while he was posting a 2.16 ERA and striking out almost 10 batters per nine innings. But still, they at least had Greinke all year.
You see, what I described in the last paragraph should stop me from saying what I’m about to, but, and while this will surely not be my only dopey prediction of the 2010 season, it might be the dopiest: I think the Nationals are … going to be pretty good this year.
*Stop laughing!*
I know the term “pretty good” isn’t exactly a bold statement, but for a team that hasn’t finished above .500 during their five-year existence in our nation’s capital (although they did finish exactly .500 in 2005, which I honestly did not remember and am slightly shocked to see), and is in a pretty solid division in the NL East, I think “pretty good” is a major improvement. Now, I don’t expect to Nationals to win the NL East. The Phillies are the easy favorites to win the division again this year. However, unlike when they went 81-81 in ’05 and finished at the bottom of the NL East, I think Washington will end the 2010 season … I will regret this I’m sure … and I believe some Mets fans will think I’m openly antagonizing them … in third place, above both the Marlins and the Mets. Yes, I’m aware the Nationals had the worst ERA in the league last year, and yes, I’m aware that they have lost 100-plus games the past two seasons, however, let me make my case (Which isn’t much. This is mostly one of those “I gotta feeling” things:
Their offense was actually pretty good last season. They have two legitimate offensive stars in Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman, and Njer Morgan has the potential to be a real, what’s the word, table-setter at the leadoff spot if he can stay healthy all year. Then, and I know this isn’t exactly a hard thing to improve on, their rotation and bullpen will be better than last year. The addition of Jason Marquis means you have two dependable guys in the No. 1 and 2 spots with him and John Lannan. Then you throw in the possibility that Stephen Strasburg could start the year in the rotation which, at the very least, would bring some much-needed excitement to the team entering the season. And they might sign former Yankees legend Chien-Ming Wang. Also, they have a proven (not elite, maybe not even average, but he has proven to have the ability to get the final three outs of a close game with some consistency) closer in Matt Capps.
I’m just throwing this prediction out early. I will have more — likely even more foolish — closer to the start of the season. But watch … at some point this year, around mid-August, you will hear or read someone using the words “Washington Nationals” and “playoffs” in the same sentence, and it will not include the phrase “have no legitimate shot at” in the middle.
The ghost of Fantasy Baseball past
Now that Spring Training is approaching, those millions of us around the world with so much free time that simply following a baseball team for 162 games isn’t enough to completely occupy it turn our attention to the annual tradition of Fantasy Baseball. This will be my fourth year being an owner, GM and manager (Just call me Jerry Jones), and I will now look back in the hopes that I can learn some lessons for the upcoming season.
Now, year one of my fantasy baseball career, way back in 2007, was a complete disaster. After being late to the draft due to a job interview (where were my priorities?), I ended up selecting Alfonso Soriano way too high in the first round, and things didn’t improve from there. I play in a head-to-head league, and my first win of the season didn’t come until Week 10. Week 10! Not surprisingly, I finished in dead last.
In year two, I knew what to expect, and came back with lofty goals in mind. I did ample amounts of research (I printed out the Yahoo! Sports player rankings as I was leaving my apartment for the draft) and, as our draft was held at a bar, I managed to refrain from getting drunk until Round 17. I had the No. 4 pick, and had convinced myself that Miguel Cabrera, who had been traded to the Tigers that offseason, was poised to have a monster year. While Miggy may not have been the perfect pick at that point, he finished with an AL-high 37 homers and 127 RBIs. Those are the certainly the types of numbers I’d expect a monster to produce at the Major League level. Maybe the WOLFMAN (in theaters today!).
I ended up finishing in third place that year, but the biggest story to come out of my 2008 fantasy baseball season wasn’t the final results, it was a particular move I made early in the season. More to the point, it was a particularly stupid move I made early in the season. That year, I had selected Josh Hamilton in the later rounds of the draft. I, like many people, had enjoyed hearing about Hamilton’s comeback story with the Reds in 2007, which not only was amazing because he beat his various addictions, but because of the fact that he was able to make it on a Major League roster after being away from the game for basically four years. And he was pretty good in ’07, with 19 homers in only 298 at-bats. He was traded to the Rangers that offseason, and I figured he could have a monster (Mothra) year in Texas. So I drafted him.
Early in the 2008 season, I also picked up then-Cardinals, now-Royals outfielder Rick Ankiel, another Major League redemption story. Everyone knows the story of Ankiel, so I don’t really have to repeat it (although the same could be said about Hamilton’s story, but … too late!), but, a brief summary: A Cardinals pitcher who lost his ability to throw strikes tried to remake himself as an outfielder as a last desperate chance to get back into the Major Leagues. Improbably, he did made it back to the Majors, with the Cardinals no less, and then put on a Roy Hobbs-like homer display in 2007, before revelations of HGH put a bit of a damper on that fairytale storyline. However, he came back with the Cardinals in ’08 and got off to a bit of a hot start so I, inspired fantasy owner, picked him up off the waiver wire.
Here’s where things get dopey.
Not only did having both Hamilton and Ankiel make my outfield a bit too crowded (I also had Manny Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Matt Kemp and J.D. Drew at the time), I also, for some reason, decided I could not have two redemption stories on my team. I thought, while one of these guys could end up being a productive player, there was no way both of them could. How that was any more improbable than anything else about the careers of Hamilton and Ankiel, I do not know. I decided one had to go and, I have a feeling you know where this is going, I dropped Hamilton.
Hamilton’s 2008 stats: AVG .304, HR 32, RBIs 130
Ankiel’s 2008 stats: AVG .264, HR 25, RBIs 71
So yes, not only did I make a move for bizarre, somewhat unnecessary reasons, I also dropped the wrong player. I ended up finishing in third that year, which was a big-time improvement over my debut in ’07, but my season is best remembered by myself and people in my league for the fact that I managed to somehow make the wise move of drafting Hamilton and then completely ruined it by dropping him due to my ” You can”t have two comeback stories on one team” logic.
Well, at the very least that was the end of my completely foolish fantasy moves. I learned my lesson, and have since made sure to think long and hard before dropping a player for dubious reasons. What was that? I dropped Justin Verlander two starts into the 2009 season? Well …
You know what, maybe it’s a better idea to ignore the ghosts of my fantasy past and focus on the bright future ahead.
What did you buy at the store? A World Series title
Right after the Yankees won the World Series in November, not surprisingly, one of the main comments from non-Yankees fans was “The Yankees bought the World Series!”
As someone who went to school in Pennsylvania, I have quite a few friends who are Phillies fans. I did not know many of these people were Phillies fans while I was attending college (2001-05), but a bunch of them began sporting the “P” hats and Chase Utley T-Shirts around 2007. Now, as someone who became a Cowboys fan in the mid-90s, I believe I have figured out why this might be the case (and before I hear anything, I think the last 15 years have made up for my jumping on that particular bandwagon). I’m not here to judge frontrunners, especially since, when it comes to the NFL, I am one (but again, the Dave Campo years, Quincy Carter, Tony Romo’s dropped snap, last year’s Eagles game, this year’s Vikings game … I may have been better off sticking with my family burden of the Jets. OK, maybe not). There are no rules to fandom.
However, back to my main point, the cries of “The Yankees bought the World Series!” is something that drives me insane, for a variety of reasons. Here are a few:
1) I’m well aware that the Yankees spend $200 million on their payroll, and that it’s a lot more than any other team spends. I’m aware that they signed the three biggest free agents prior to the 2009 season, and that those signings, to go along with all the other highly-paid players they have on the team, is the main reason the Yankees were able to win the World Series. I’m not six years old. I don’t think pride, power and pinstripes were the main ingredients to why the Yankees won it all in 2009. However, the Yankees are not breaking any rules when they go out and spend $200 million on their team every year. Yes, they once again passed the payroll threshold in the collective bargaining agreement this year, but, as far as I know, they also paid the luxury tax.
In the current MLB structure, teams can basically spend as much or as little as they want to field a team (although the Marlins just got some grief for their low payroll). In the Yankees’ case, they spend an ungodly amount, since their goal every year is to win the World Series. In the case of, say, the Pittsburgh Pirates, they spend very little, since their goal is … I have no idea what the Pirates’ goal is going into a season. Maybe they’re praying to someone every year, and their hope is, if they win the World Series with their payroll and personnel decisions, this can go towards that person’s case for sainthood in the Catholic Church. Sounds good to me! My point is, the Yankees are operating within the rules of Major League Baseball. If MLB wants to change and go to a salary cap at some point, that’s fine. But under the current rules, the Yankees are allowed to spend the vast amounts of money they have on fielding the best team possible. As a fan, I would be offended if they didn’t.
2) In 2008, the Phillies beat the Rays in the World Series. In 2008, the Phillies had a bigger payroll then the Rays. It wasn’t one dollar more, it was a few million dollars more. Was the difference in payroll between the Phillies and Rays equal to the difference in payroll between the Yankees and Phillies? No. My questions is: How much more money does one team have to spend than another team for it to be deemed an unfair advantage? I haven’t received a good answer on that question yet. People just tend to shout: “The Yankees spend $200 million! No one’s even close!” And yes, that’s true. But the Yankees have been spending more than everyone else for a long time, and, before last year, they hadn’t won a World Series since 2000 (Oh man, was that a long nine years!).
3) The Florida Marlins a.k.a. the anti-Yankees, were able to beat New York in the 2003 Word Series. The Marlins, a team that wears teal; a team that has only been around since 1993; a team that plays baseball in a football stadium; a team with a tiny payroll; were able to beat the big, bad Yankees in the 2003 World Series right after New York beat Boston in one of the great American League Championship Series of all time. They rode Josh Beckett, their youth and a “We’ve got nothing to lose” attitude to a World Series title. They even finished the bombers off at Yankee Stadium. If the Marlins can win that Series, with the vast difference in payrolls, what excuse do the Phillies have?
In conclusion (I’m ending this like many of my terrible English papers in college), it was easy for Phillies fans, and other non-Yankees fans, to simply yell “The Yankees bought that World Series!” after the ’09 Fall Classic. They can ignore the fact that the Phillies were leading this Series 1-0 after Cliff Lee completely dominated Game 1; that they wasted a quality start by Pedro Martinez in Game 2; or that they had a chance to tie the Series at 2-2 in Game 4 if Brad Lidge hadn’t imploded during the ninth inning. Yankees fans don’t have that luxury (some would say it’s the one luxury we don’t have). When the Yankees lose, fans can only blame the team, which is why Joe Torre was basically run out of town after the 2007 season even though he made the playoffs every year he was manager in the Bronx, and why A-Rod, before 2009, was blasted as a choker even though he’d won two MVP awards since coming to New York. When the Phillies lost to the Yankees their fans were able to yell “Of course the Yanks won, look at how much money they spend!” If the Yankees had lost, what Yankees fans would have been yelling was “What the hell did they spend all that money on?”
Now that all that NFL stuff is out of the way
Well, with all this Super Bowl broo ha ha (I’m spelling that word how I want) now over, we’re just nine days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training. Oh for real!
The Yankees, who see strength in versatile outfielders, will be heading to George Steinbrenner Field in Tampa Bay, with their first Spring Training game scheduled against the Pittsburgh Pirates on March 3.
Last year there were plenty of questions surrounding the Yanks coming into Spring Training after they missed out on the postseason in 2008. How would new free agents CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett perform in New York? Who was going to be the starting center fielder, Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner? Who was going to be the right fielder, Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher? Was Jorge Posada’s shoulder healthy? Were Hideki Matsui’s knees healthy? Joba (Joba, Joba): starter or reliever? Was Joe Girardi going to loosen up a bit during his second year as Yanks manager? Girardi also decided to switch Derek Jeter to leadoff and have Johnny Damon bat in the No. 2 hole.* You had the excitement about the new Yankee Stadium. And, of course, there was also the whole A-Rod steroid scandal.
*When it first was announced, I thought it was ridiculous. Until I
remembered all the double plays Jeter hit into in 2008 (honestly, it
was out of control) and the fact that Jeter being on first would open
up the hole at second base for Damon. It ended up working out great.**
**I stole this idea from Joe Posnanski
As everyone knows, whatever needed to be done during Spring Training last year worked out, and the Yankees went on to win World Series title No. 27. There were bumps along the way: A-Rod ended up missing the first month and a half of the season due to hip surgery; Nady was eventually lost for the season due to Tommy John surgery; Joba’s uneven season as a starter; Phil Hughes joining (and solidifying) the bullpen and the bridge to Mariano Rivera. Most importantly, basically everyone on the team, outside of A-Rod at the start of the year, was healthy the entire season.
That, it seems, will be the main concern heading into the 2010 Spring Training: making sure everyone gets to the start of the season healthy. There is some concern about the age on a few players, notably Posada (I guess you could throw Jeter in there as well), and I’m sure some people might be worried about the amount of innings both CC (although he threw a ton of innings in 2008 as well) and Pettitte threw last season, but for the most part, there isn’t much.
The only position battle looks to be over who plays center field, Granderson or Gardner. I believe Granderson will start in left when Gardner is in the lineup, and might shift over to center when Wynn is playing. I’m sure people are going to focus on how Granderson hits left-handers throughout Spring Training. The other two big acquisitions this offseason were Nick Johnson and Javier Vazquez, and they’re both former Yankees who, at this point in their respective careers, you know what you’re going to get: If healthy, Johnson will get on base and Vazquez will strike plenty of people out.
There’s also the fifth starter spot, but I think that’s Joba’s to lose. Unlike Hughes, Joba doesn’t really have an innings-limit any more, so I can’t see them putting Hughes in the rotation unless Joba has a terrible Spring Training and Hughes is absolutely lights out. Or, if Joba struggles, they might go with Sergio Mitre or Chad Gaudin in the rotation, and stick both Hughes and Joba in the ‘pen, but I highly doubt that happens.
I know for some the absence of Damon will be a big story, but I’ve already made my views on the Damon situation known on this blog. I’m sure new questions will pop up once everyone arrives, but I’m much more at ease heading into Spring Training this year compared to the day after the Super Bowl in 2009.
Mets fans on the other hand …
briancougar
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