First dopey prediction of 2010. Yes, it involves the Nats

As I said in my first post of 2010, outside of my AL East/World Series predictions (which, as a Yankees fan, were slightly biased, but I legitimately expected the Yanks to win the World Series in 2009. I mean, they did sign CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira during the offseason. Would I have picked the Yanks to win it all in either ’07 or ’08? I’m not sure. I wasn’t crazy about their pitching either of those two seasons), my ’09 picks for the rest of the Major League were pretty atrocious. I mean, I picked the Cubs to face the Yankees in the World Series, and they were probably the most disappointing team in the Majors last season.

My sleeper pick was the Kansas City Royals, as I somehow ignored the fact that they haven’t made the playoffs since they won the World Series in 1985. When I was two years old. Not only did the Royals not make the playoffs last year, they managed to finish dead last in the AL Central — behind the Indians no less (they did finish with identical records). Even though KC had the AL Cy Young Award winner in Zack Greinke — and managed to get a sort of breakout (can you sort of breakout?) year from Billy Butler — they finished behind the Indians in the standings, during a season where the Indians traded their best pitcher (Cliff Lee) and best offensive player (Victor Martinez). And it’s not like the Indians had much outside of those two players anyway(Grady Sizemore was injured for a large part of the season). I know the Royals’ bullpen (it did include Yankees legend Kyle Farnsworth) and offense were so horrible that they managed to win only 16 of Greinke’s 33 starts while he was posting a 2.16 ERA and striking out almost 10 batters per nine innings. But still, they at least had Greinke all year.

You see, what I described in the last paragraph should stop me from saying what I’m about to, but, and while this will surely not be my only dopey prediction of the 2010 season, it might be the dopiest: I think the Nationals are … going to be pretty good this year.

*Stop laughing!*

I know the term “pretty good” isn’t exactly a bold statement, but for a team that hasn’t finished above .500 during their five-year existence in our nation’s capital (although they did finish exactly .500 in 2005, which I honestly did not remember and am slightly shocked to see), and is in a pretty solid division in the NL East, I think “pretty good” is a major improvement. Now, I don’t expect to Nationals to win the NL East. The Phillies are the easy favorites to win the division again this year. However, unlike when they went 81-81 in ’05 and finished at the bottom of the NL East, I think Washington will end the 2010 season … I will regret this I’m sure … and I believe some Mets fans will think I’m openly antagonizing them … in third place, above both the Marlins and the Mets. Yes, I’m aware the Nationals had the worst ERA in the league last year, and yes, I’m aware that they have lost 100-plus games the past two seasons, however, let me make my case (Which isn’t much. This is mostly one of those “I gotta feeling” things:

Their offense was actually pretty good last season. They have two legitimate offensive stars in Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman, and Njer Morgan has the potential to be a real, what’s the word, table-setter at the leadoff spot if he can stay healthy all year. Then, and I know this isn’t exactly a hard thing to improve on, their rotation and bullpen will be better than last year. The addition of Jason Marquis means you have two dependable guys in the No. 1 and 2 spots with him and John Lannan. Then you throw in the possibility that Stephen Strasburg could start the year in the rotation which, at the very least, would bring some much-needed excitement to the team entering the season. And they might sign former Yankees legend Chien-Ming Wang. Also, they have a proven (not elite, maybe not even average, but he has proven to have the ability to get the final three outs of a close game with some consistency) closer in Matt Capps.

I’m just throwing this prediction out early. I will have more — likely even more foolish — closer to the start of the season. But watch … at some point this year, around mid-August, you will hear or read someone using the words “Washington Nationals” and “playoffs” in the same sentence, and it will not include the phrase “have no legitimate shot at” in the middle.