The past two years, the never-ending debate in regards to Joba (Joba Joba) Chamberlain has been: Starter or reliever? Now, after his dominance in the bullpen as the setup man for Mariano Rivera last year, people are asking the same question of Phil Hughes. Both Hughes and Joba head into Spring Training with their sites on being the Yankees’ fifth starter — Sergio Mitre, Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves are in the mix as well — with the loser of what ESPN’s Jayson Stark called the “Phil-vs.-Joba Steel-Cage Match” heading back to the ‘pen, likely in the eighth-inning role.

As I said in my first blog post of 2010, I thought, since Joba is no longer going to deal with any innings-limits, that the final rotation spot would be his to lose going into Spring Training. However, SI.com’s Jon Heyman, a man slightly more in the know than I am, said in his column posted today about the Yankees that Hughes looks to be the early favorite:

“The guess here is that Hughes has a slight edge for the starting job going in, partly because Chamberlain was so much better in the bullpen than as a starter and partly because there are no Hughes Rules.”

I’m kind of shocked that there are no “Hughes Rules” in place if he wins the starting spot. Hughes has never started more than 13 games at the Major League level, and his career-high for innings-pitched in the Majors is the 86 he threw last year, mostly out of the ‘pen. He pitched 146 innings during the ’06 season, which was his career-high in the Minor Leagues. Joba ended up making 31 starts last year, and reached 157 1/3 innings, with the club limiting him to about three innings per start during a five-game stretch in September. I tried asking Heyman on Twitter if the Yankees would be willing to let Hughes make 30-plus starts and throw around 200 innings if he were to win the job, but he has yet to reply. He can’t ignore me forever. Oh wait, yes he can.

And his point on Joba being much better in the bullpen as a starter, well, isn’t that the case for Hughes as well? Outside of the no-hitter that wasn’t/hamstring injury game against Texas during the ’07 season, Hughes hasn’t exactly looked like a dominant starter. He went 0-4 with a 6.62 ERA in eight starts during the ’08 season, and last year was 3-2 as a starter, with two very good starts (six scoreless innings in his first start against Detroit; eight scoreless innings against Texas), four that were mediocre at best, and one shellacking at the hands of Baltimore (eight runs in 1 2/3). Then he went to the ‘pen and, like Joba in ’07, was dominant.

Joba’s first full season as a starter was not a success (9-6, 4.75 ERA in 31 starts), but he didn’t embarrass himself (well, outside of his fist-pump during his outing against the Red Sox on May 5. Yes, he struck out 12 batters, but he also gave up four runs in the first inning, lasted only 5 2/3 and, when he did the pump, the Yankees were trailing, 4-3. The Yankees ended up losing that game, 7-3. I had/have no problem with the Joba fist-pump … if it’s following a big out when the team is winning).

There’s also the possibility that Mitre, Gaudin or Aceves could win the final spot, and both Hughes and Joba could go to the ‘pen. I’ve heard a few people suggest this, but I see zero shot of it happening. An unnamed scout in Stark’s column thinks they should go this route because Hughes and Joba “are both better in the bullpen.” He also adds: “Neither one of them is overpowering as a starter. But they’re both overpowering out of the bullpen.” However: A) They’re competing to be the No. 5 starter, not a No. 1 or 2. They’re not expected to be dominant yet. And B) They’re both still very young. Zack Greinke went 5-17 wth a 5.80 ERA in his first full season as a starter, and last year was absolutely dominant (16-8, 2.16 ERA) on his way to winning the AL Cy Young. I’m not saying either Hughes or Chamberlain will ever put together a season like Greinke did in ’09, but we’ll never find out if they can be elite starters if they never get a chance to develop in the rotation.

I don’t like the “they’re more overpowering in the bullpen than they would be as starters” argument because I think that’s the case for basically every pitcher. The reason most pitchers are in the bullpen is because they couldn’t make it as a starter. It’s one thing to take a potentially good starter and convert him into a dominant setup man or closer. But if both are in the ‘pen then one is basically going to be a middle reliever. You’re going to pass up finding out if one of these two can become a successful starter for one of them to pitch the sixth or seventh inning? And which one is going to be the setup man? It opens a whole new debate.

I do agree with one point the scout in Stark’s column made, that Joba “has always been a bull in a china shop. I don’t think he has a real good feel for pitching.” My main critique with Joba during his starts has been his pitch selection. He tends to fall in love with his slider, even if it isn’t sharp, and will often throw it at the worst time, like in a 3-2 count, hoping to surprise the hitter and get a strikeout. This has contributed to his struggles with walks during his time as a starter. Hughes, on the other hand, will occasionally just start throwing nothing but fastballs and completely ignore his curveball. Hughes has the better control of the two, but Joba gets more swings and misses (at least it seems like he does. I’m sure there’s somewhere to check that stat). The key for both is to develop a third pitch. Joba throws the occasional curveball, but it doesn’t do much. Hughes stopped throwing his changeup once he became a reliever, but that will have to return, and improve, if he’s back in the rotation.

So, who’s going to win? My early guess, if Heyman is right and there’s no “Hughes Rules,” is that Joba is headed back to setting up Mo in the ‘pen. We’ll find out over the next six weeks.